The what-ifs of the 2024 election

The outcome of yesterday's Presidential and National Assembly election, which observers predict will be the most closely contested in the country's history, could shake Namibia's governance structures.

This is particularly so if no outright winners emerge in either election. Many recent views suggests that Swapo will win this election, but by margins lower than those of 2019 when the party lost the two-thirds majority in parliament, which it has held for 30 years since 1994.

Others have suggested that Swapo will lose parliament – amid an expected surged by newcomers Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) and the youth-centric Affirmative Repositioning movement – but its candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah will emerge victories. Results of the recent special voting, by members of the security cluster, seagoing personnel and Namibians in the diaspora, showed Nandi-Ndaitwah outperforming her own party.

Scenario 1: What if there is no presidential winner?

Namibia uses the majority voting system, which dictates that winner – especially in the presidential vote - must obtain more than 50% of the votes. This is contrary to the plurality voting system that some countries use, where the winner is the individual who has the most votes. That could mean that that nominee could be declared a winner with, for example, only 33% of the vote.

If no one obtains over 50% in yesterday’s election, a second round of voting, for the presidential position only, would be called between the candidate with the most votes and one that came second. ‘It’s a two-horse race between the top-two candidates only,’ a university academic, who preferred anonymity, commented.

Quoting the Electoral Act, executive director of the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) Graham Hopwood said a second round of voting for the presidential election must take place within 60 days from the date of the original election. In this case, it would mean convening this election towards the end of January 2025.

Scenario 2: Swapo wins presidency, losses parliament

With special voting results from two weeks ago showing Nandi-Ndaitwah outperforming Swapo itself, there is genuine fear that the ruling party might struggle to win a parliamentary majority. This is contrary to the 2019 final result, which saw Swapo winning 65% of the vote, while its presidential candidate – late Hage Geingob – could only muster 56% in the presidential race.

In the event that Swapo does not retain its parliamentary majority in the National Assembly, political scientist Rui Tyitende said the party might move fast to snap up one of the smaller opposition parties as its coalition partner, in order to attain the required majority. ‘One of the ways to do so would be to offer a non-strategic ministerial position to the leader of that party, in order to entice them to form part of the coaltion,’ Tyitende said yesterday on Network TV.

‘The opposition is too fragmented in this election, and this might derail any chance of them to work together in order to keep Swapo in the minority. This election is more about 2029, where you expect Swapo to face even a bigger challenge – but only if the opposition is united to, for example, back one presidential candidate,’ he added.

Scenario 3: Opposition candidate wins presidency, Swapo wins parliament

If an opposition leader wins the state presidency but their party did not win majority seats in the National Assembly, they will rule with a serious power deficit. In fact, Chapter 5 of the Namibian constitution states that ‘a president shall be removed from office if a two-thirds majority of all the members of the National Assembly, confirmed by a two-thirds majority of all the members of the National Council, adopts a resolution impeaching the president on the ground that he or she has been guilty of a violation of the Constitution or guilty of a serious violation of the laws of the land or otherwise guilty of such gross misconduct or ineptitude as to render him or her unfit to hold with dignity and honour the office of President’.

If Swapo is in control of the legislature, the possibility of working towards removing a president from an opposition party cannot be ruled out – just as it is possible that a Swapo head of state whose party is in a parliamentary minority faces the same threat.

Scenario 4: Opposition coalition in parliament

If Swapo losses its parliamentary majority, the opposition – which through its fragmented seats has the majority – may want to formalise this scenario by forming a coalition that would then be declared as one dominant unit to fend off any advances by Swapo. This would be reminiscent of how the opposition parties won a collective 10 seats in the Windhoek municipal council in 2020, compared to Swapo’s five. At the time, some opposition parties formed a unit, christened ‘the progressive forces’, which then assumed dominance of council for a period of time, before infighting inadvertently dismantled it. This gave rise to Swapo, which now controls the mayoral seat and most of the management committee. After failing to secure two-thirds majority in parliament in 2019, politically shrewd Geingob moved fast to snap up president of National Unity Democratic Organisation (Nudo) Ester Muijangue by making her the deputy minister of health. This was seen as a move to give Swapo a muted two-thirds majority, hoping Muinjangue would vote with Swapo on major issues in parliament, if a need arose. The same tape could replay itself this time, if so summoned. It would be foolhardy for the opposition to only work together occasionally, if they are in the majority, rather than locking each other in a formidable block that could push back Swapo on key decisions in the august house.