South Africa’s inflation cools to 7.6%

Consumer inflation cooled slightly in August, to 7.6% from 7.8% in July – thanks mostly to lower fuel prices. But food prices remained red hot.

The monthly change in the consumer price index (CPI) was the lowest reading since January 2022 when it was also 0.2%, Statistics SA reported.

August's CPI number matches the median of 17 estimates from economists in a Bloomberg survey. Some economists have predicted that July would be the peak of the current inflation wave.

Still, the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee is expected to hike rates by another 75 basis points on Thursday. This is to cool inflation - and to keep the rand stable, as other countries see jumbo rate hikes. The rand and local assets like bonds must continue to offer competitive interest rates, otherwise South Africa will not attractive inflows.

While the petrol price fell by 5.0% and diesel by 0.9% from July to August, food prices continued to run, with food and non-alcoholic beverages 11.3% higher in August than a year before. This is markedly higher than the annual inflation of 9.7% in July. Nine of the eleven food and beverage categories recorded an annual inflation rate above 8.0% in August, Statistics SA noted.

Bread and cereal prices were almost 18% higher than a year ago, rising by 3.1% between July and August. Maize meal was 29.1% pricier than a year ago, and prices jumped by 4.8% in a single month. Meat prices were more than 9% higher than a year ago, but the monthly increase was less than 1%.

By contrast, there were big monthly price hikes in cheddar cheese ( 3.1%), low fat milk ( 2.9%) and full cream milk ( 2.6%). Also, tomato prices jumped by 10% in a single month. Cake flour is 31% pricier than a year ago.

Prices of oils and fats hit another annual high, reaching 37.6% in August. Sunflower oil is now 55% more expensive than a year ago. But the monthly inflation was cooler – from 10.1% in May this year to 1.1% in August.-Fin24